Justin Trudeau has declared he will resign as Prime Minister of Canada, a decision that triggers a flurry of action in the Canadian political scene as we approach 2025. And wagering markets are paying attention. 

Trump's Influence 

The announcement made by Trudeau on Monday morning is the most recent event in the political upheaval triggered by the resignation of Trudeau’s finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, shortly before Christmas, partly due to a public disagreement between Trudeau and Freeland regarding Liberal government economic strategies. 

Specifically, there was said to be discord regarding the approach to 25% tariff threats issued by incoming US President Donald Trump, primarily centered on Trump’s frustration over the Canadians' perceived lack of seriousness regarding border security. 

Minority Government Teeters on the Edge 

Freeland stated in her resignation announcement on X dated December 16:

"Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the Cabinet. To be effective, a Minister must speak on behalf of the Prime Minister and with his full confidence. In making your decision, you made clear that I no longer credibly enjoy that confidence and possess the authority that comes with it.”

Freeland stated, “In recent weeks, you [Trudeau] and I have been in disagreement about the ideal way forward for Canada.” Our nation currently confronts a serious dilemma. The forthcoming administration in the United States is adopting a strategy of assertive economic nationalism, which includes a potential imposition of 25 percent tariffs. 

Trudeau Falling in Surveys 

Trudeau, whose administration came to power in 2015, faces significant unpopularity among the Canadian voters. As of December 24, Angus Reid's “Trudeau Tracker” recorded an approval rating of 22% for him. In recent weeks, the Liberal caucuses from Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada have all urged him to step down. 

The minority Liberal government is on shaky ground, with the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre significantly leading in the polls at 44.2%, as reported by CBC polling on Monday morning. That lead indicates Conservatives are expected to secure 227 seats and establish a majority government. 

A nonconfidence vote to topple the Liberal government would need backing from the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh, a party that has been supporting the Liberals through an agreement between the two parties. The focus is now clearly on Singh's plans for the future. 

Mark Carney a Leading Candidate to Succeed Trudeau 

Attention is also focused on who will take over from Trudeau and guide the Liberals into the upcoming election, set for Oct. 20, 2025. Mark Carney, Freeland, Melanie Joly (the Foreign Affairs Minister), and Dominic LeBlanc (who took over from Freeland as Finance Minister) are among the individuals being discussed. 

Carney, the banker and economist who held the position of governor of the Bank of England from 2013 until 2020, would be intriguing, as he would bring a new perspective from outside Trudeau’s close circle, untainted by the current turmoil. 

Carney could signify a reliable transformation in Liberal economic policy and might attract disenchanted Liberals turned off by Trudeau’s leadership back into the fold. How this might influence the Conservative advantage in the polls remains a significant question. 

Should Trudeau choose to prorogue Parliament (which is set to reconvene after the Christmas break on January 27), it would postpone any vote of nonconfidence. If the NDP were to unite with the Conservatives in a nonconfidence vote after the introduction of a new legislative agenda under new Liberal leadership, this could lead Canada to a national vote during the summer. 

Wagering Markets 

Trudeau's declaration had an immediate impact on prediction markets, such as Polymarket, which reported the following on Monday morning: 

• Canada election set for April? (61% likelihood it will, $129,204 turnover) 
• The upcoming Prime Minister of Canada has a 91% likelihood of being Poilievre, while Freeland stands at 6%, based on $283K in volume. 
• Is there a 2024 no confidence motion against Trudeau? (Only 1% chance, volume at $415,884) 

BetMGM has positioned the Conservatives as clear betting frontrunners at -2000, while the Liberals are at +900. Certainly! However, you have provided the word "And" only, which consists of just one word. If you would like a paraphrase or to provide a longer text, please share additional content for me to work with.  FanDuel quickly introduced a new betting market: "On what day will the 45th Canadian Federal Election take place?" Winter (either before or in Feb. 2025) is +380; Spring (March to May 2025) is -260; Summer (June to Sept. 2025) is +200; Fall (from Sept. to Oct. 19, 2025) is +550; The scheduled date (Oct. 20) is +1700. 

A suspension of the Canadian Parliament would significantly jeopardize the proposed national advertising standards for the sports betting bill. 

“I don’t think this changes the pathway for the igaming advertising bill, just delays it, obviously,” said Mark Harper, head of emerging markets at BVGroup, particularly online casino.“Certainly doesn’t change any of the strategies that BVG had planned.”